Mark Jones selected for Aberdeen South

Mark Jones, former candidate for Ayr, Carrick & Cumnock, has been selected to fight Aberdeen South.

A Lab-Lib marginal, Labour MP Anne Begg was just over 8000 ahead of the Conservatives in 2005.

Comments

[Stewart Geddes]

Well done Mark

[TiredTory]

UNNECESSARILY NEGATIVE COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

[Alex Swanson]

Good Luck Mark. I was at university at Aberdeen and campaigned in Aberdeen South in the 1983 general election. We won then, it can be done again.

[tiredtory]

UNNECESSARILY NEGATIVE COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR.

No it wasn't. I merely asked why we are parachuting candidates in from England. The Scottish Tories are forever being branded an English Party, Editor, how is bringing in English candidates going to change that?

[Arthur Cook]

1. Why is tiredtory hiding behind a made up name. Frightened to come out ?
2. Tiredtory? we're all a little bit tired but need to get behind our candidates.
3. I predict CON gain 1,000 majority, if anyone can win, Mark can.

[tiredtory]

A 1000 tory majority? You're having a laugh. One MP from Scotland is the best we'll do

[Real Scot]

A Council by-election in this constituency in August (when we were trailing Labour with only 32% of the vote in UK opinion polls) saw the Tories only 50 votes behind the SNP with both Lib Dems and Labour trailing way behind in third and fourth place respectively. Lib Dems vote was in free fall here even before Ming's resignation and Labours way down as well.
Given a general swing to the Tories and a good hard working Candidate with a proven track record which Mark is by all accounts no reason we can't win here.
Happy to go along with 1000 Tory majority!

[Blue Flag Flying High]

Mark Jones has certainly not been parachuted into Aberdeen South! In fact, he is one of the best campaigners in the Scottish Tory Party. He has stood several times before for both Westminster and Holyrood. In 2005 he stood in Ayrshire and was one of only two Tory candidates in the whole of Scotland to get a swing from Labour to the Scottish Tories. No mean achievement. He lives and makes a living in Scotland and has done so for a very long time. If you care to speak to him you’ll find as I have that he’s committed to winning for the party in Scotland. He’s spent a fortune in supporting the party. Yes, he could have tried for a seat in England. He’s certainly got the contacts in his old neck of the woods. He might even be in the House of Commons by now. But if we still value loyalty to the cause and the virtue of hard work in our Party, this guy is solid! Good luck, Mark!

[Bill]

Sorry, but the suggestions being made on this thread that we can win in Aberdeen South, and indeed forecast of a majority of 1000, is pure fantasy and do us no favours whatsoever in terms of our credibility.

The fact is that our share of the vote in this constituency has fallen from 26.4% to 17.1% over the past decade. There is simply no chance, however much we would like to believe differently, that this seat can produce a win for us.

There are no more than a handful of seats in Scotland where there is a realistic chance of success, being DCT, where I would be confident of a Conservative hold, Dumfries and Galloway, although victory here would require a helpful split in the Labour-SNP vote which unfortunately did not occur in 2005 and which again may not, and Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk, as a consequence of the momentum generated by John Lamont’s win in the equivalent Holyrood seat.

There are of course several other seats which we should actively seek to develop during this electoral cycle as longer term prospects, and seats which are important for us because they are related to Holyrood seats which we either presently hold or are targeting, but let’s be serious about where winning is possible and where it is not this time around.

[Tired Tory]

Can I point out that I am the real 'Tired Tory' and have never met or commented on Mark Jones. For those who have read my blog in the past, I will have it back up and running soon.

Cheers,

TT

[West Coast Boy]

Two new Scottish selections:

Jim Ferguson has been selected as candidate for Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey. Seat currently held by Liberal Democrats with 4,148 majority over Labour. In 2005, Tories came 4th with 10.3% of vote.

Philip Lardner has been selected for North Aryshire and Arran. Seat held by Labour (Katy Clark) with a 11,296 majority ove the Conservatives.

[Scotty]

Glad to hear that Tired Tory, I must admit as someone who visits your blog I was bit surprised by the earlier comment.
Congratulations to Mark Jones, you have a tough job on your hands, I see Aberdeen South as one of a handful of seats in Scotland that should never be written off. It could with a concerted campaign and good grass roots operation be possible to turn that constituency blue again, possible over two elections.
It was the only Conservative gain from Labour in 92' and it could be again. It is a seat that could have a large swing, especially in light of the change in the political fortunes of all four main parties in Scotland. IMHO it is perfectly feasible for the Conservatives to do better than the Libdems after the events of recent years, will also be interesting to see if the SNP can and will be a threat at Westminster level now they are in charge at Holyrood.
Labour has always been more vulnerable to the national UK swings in this seat.

[Scotty]

As for the negative comments of the other Tired Tory, RUBBISH! I have seen the complete opposite occur in practice.

[NorthBriton]

Good luck, Mark. I think there is a possibility of a tight four-cornered result in this seat with both Labour and LibDems shedding votes to us and the SNP.

[Raven]

Mark is a great guy who works harder than most and is totally commited to the Party' I am sure he will give a few people quite a surprise come the election

[The Real Tired Tory]

COMMENT OVERWRITTEN BY THE EDITOR

[Aberdonian]

Mark Jones is very well-known up here. His reputation is as someone who works hard on the doors and on the phones and with the local media. His campaign in May on Shetland was very organised and well-fought. He didn't get the result his personal effort deserved. I don't know him personally but his reputation precedes him. The word from Ayr in 2005 was that he was a first class candidate but didn't get the team behind him due to petty local issues (read personalities) outside of his influence. Yet he still had a swing from Labour. Well done Mark on your selection and all the best in the campaign that lies ahead. If anyone win Aberdeen South back, it's you.

[Rabbie]

Aberdonian

I’ll say this much – you’re in for a VERY long two years.

[Tartan Tory]

Aberdeen South should be on the Conservatives' hit list in Scotland. The Aberdeen South Tories have made a canny choice in Mark Jones. Good luck Mark.

[Stephen]

Good luck Mark and well done Aberdeen South on selecting a very sound candidate.

[Well I do know Mark Jones]

COMMENT OVERRIDDEN FOR UNFOUNDED ALLEGATIONS

[Real Scot]

No doubt about it with the Lib-Dem/SNP City Council in total melt down and Labour fighting for its political life in Scotland the Scottish Tories are on the way back in Aberdeen South.
Mark Jones has been a superb candidate and folk on the streets are now looking seriously at the prospects of a Tory win come the general election in this constituency.

[Oberon Houston]

I campaigned for a bit in Aberdeen South in the 2005 General Election and the problem wasn't disaffection with the Labour MP, Anne Begg, who was unpopular, but the split of the Conservative-LibDem vote. The LibDems sought to play on this in their campaign - pulling in thousands of Tory votes - and should have won, but the fools fielded such a weak candidate (Vicci Harris) for a key target seat, Begg squeezed back in and Aberdeen South were saddled with her for another five years.

Re-taking this seat isn't really possible now unfortunately. We only got 17% of the vote last time, 7,134 votes. The local association up there is fantastic, with some really great personalities - Mark will be greatly comforted by that - but I'm sure they would agree that activist support is thin on the ground. The 400 campaigners in Crewe just now is a million miles away from the horse power we can put on the ground in Aberdeen. Labour melt-downs in Scotland don't really benefit the Tories in the same way it does in England, but none the less, I wish them all the best in their efforts.

[Doric Don]

Oberon, the local association is in fine form in Aberdeen South. Totally transformed from 2005 GE. Mark has worked tremendously hard and built up a fantastic team of campaigners and activists. He has really got things going in this constituency.
The Lib-dems are looking for their THIRD candidate in 12 months, Nationalists have not even got a candidate and Anne Begg is in the local press following Crewe result telling Labour supporters not to panic!
Need I say more. The only question that remains is how large the Tory majority will be in this seat come the GE.

[Tartan Tory]

With an unpopular Labour Government at Westminster and the Lib Dem-Nat city council in meltdown, if we cannot win here, serious questions need to be asked.

[ChrisD]

Aberdeen South is one to watch, quite simple the ramifications from the cuts being made by the Council are still sending out shock waves.
I think that the Libdems were already in trouble up here before the full extent of the Council's financial problems became public.
The SNP only went into coalition with the Libdems after the elections last year, these problems date back years.
Sorry, but its wrong to dismiss a seat like this as being lost to the Conservatives now.
There are seats like this throughout the UK that need to be brought back into the Tory fold, and you only do that by working hard to build up the activist base and campaigning hard.
Oberon, you won't get 400 activists turning up in this constituency, but neither will you get that in the SNP, Libdems or Labour up here at the moment. There is a sad decline in the activist base of all the parties up here, although I admit it is more stark in our case.

Now a seat like Aberdeen South with a good candidate which they have in Mark, and a good campaign could really bear fruit for the party in a GE where its the Conservatives that will oust a Labour government rather than the SNP. I expect to see the our vote not only holding up but increasing on the back of the Libdems current electoral decline. Some will go to the SNP, but not as many as would do if its a Holyrood election.
I have lived most of my adult life in this constituency and I remember voting Tory and getting a Tory MP in 92' - the only Tory gain from Labour in the whole UK!
I now live in a nearby constituency, but still know the area well.

[Aberdonian]

Mark Jones has set up a blog at http://markjones4mp.blogspot.com/ and it seems quite lively. It's probably meant to be for party members but it's sure to attract attention from his opponents and detractors.

[drew]

Wow - great blog - excellent!
Living in the NE I hear that Mark is working his socks off in this Constituency. He is well liked and respected locally. With Nicol Stephen deciding to 'spend more time with his famiy', Labour in terminal decline and the Nats never doing well in Westminster elections in this seat expect a good result - very possible Tory gain.

[ChrisD]

"With Nicol Stephen deciding to 'spend more time with his famiy'"

I suspect that Nicol Stephen's decision to spend more time with his family has more to do with concentrating full time on saving his own seat at the next Scottish elections.
Things are looking very dire for the Libdems locally with savings of nearly 50 million pounds now having to be made by Aberdeen Council instead of the already very painful 27 million initially estimated.
Speaking to three very different people in the last couple of weeks who still live in the city, I was struck by how they were focussed on this and mentioned how the cuts were effecting them.