ConservativeHome's Seats & Candidates blog

Coach trip to Norwich North, 19th July

ConHome is likely to run a coach from London to Norwich North on Sunday 19th July.  But before going ahead I need to establish the degree of interest.  If you would be willing to give up your Sunday for some leaflet delivering in this crucial by-election please email me.  The cost will be £15.

Thank you.

Tim Montgomerie

PS

Any members or activists from Kent who are keen to offer help in the Norwich North by election are welcome to join Tracey Crouch and the Chatham & Aylesford coach on Monday 20th July.  The coach will be departing from Blue Bell Hill (just off J3 of the M2) at 9am and will be returning from Norwich at 6pm (arriving back in Kent around 9pm).
 
To book a space or for further details please email Andrew at the Chatham & Aylesford Association office: caconservatives@btconnect.com or tel: 01634 853322.
 

The oldest Conservative candidates bidding to enter Parliament at the next election

Here is the latest in a series of lists categorising some of those standing as candidates in seats which are either notionally Conservative or appear on paper in the top 200 target seats for the Conservatives at the next election.

Yesterday we listed the ten youngest candidates standing in those seats.

Below is a list of the ten oldest candidates to have given us their dates of birth:

Brenda Porter (Southport, pictured) – January 10, 1939
Ken Andrew (Carshalton and Wallington) – December 21, 1944
John Bell (Clwyd South) – February 10, 1947
Gordon Henderson (Sittingbourne and Sheppey) – January 27, 1948
Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster and Fleetwood) – March 26, 1950
Jonathan Evans (Cardiff North) – June 2, 1950
Martin Vickers (Cleethorpes) – September 13, 1950
Deirdre Alden (Birmingham Edgbaston) – May 1, 1952
Sian Flynn (Cornwall North) – July 30, 1952
Byron Davies (Gower) – September 4, 1952

NB Several candidates have declined to provide us with a date of birth, although two who also stand out as demonstrating considerable experience over a number of decades are Mid Derbyshire PPC Pauline Latham (who has been married for forty years) and Slough PPC Diana Coad (who joined the party in 1965).

Jonathan Isaby

The twelve candidates for the Norwich North by-election

The full list of candidates (in alphabetical order courtesy of the BBC):

1. Peter Baggs (Independent)
2. Thomas Burridge (Libertarian Party)
3. Anne Fryatt (None of The Above Party)
4. Bill Holden (Independent)
5. Laud Howling (The Official Monster Raving Loony Party)
6. Craig Murray (Put An Honest Man into Parliament)
7. Chris Ostrowski (Labour)
8. April Pond (Liberal Democrat)
9. Rupert Read (Green)
10. Chloe Smith (Conservative)
11. Glenn Tingle (UK Independence Party)
12. Robert West (British National Party).

News about a ConHome coach trip to Norwich will be posted first thing tomorrow.

The youngest members of the potential next intake of Conservative MPs

Here is the latest in a series of lists categorising some of those standing as candidates in seats which are either notionally Conservative or appear on paper in the top 200 target seats for the Conservatives at the next election.

Yesterday we listed those with a background in farming.

Today we are publishing a list of the ten youngest candidates in those top target seats:

Peter Lyburn (Perth and North Perthshire, pictured) – April 15, 1984
James Wharton (Stockton South) – February 16, 1984
Annesley Abercorn (Hazel Grove) – Feburary 1, 1984
Douglas Ross (Moray) – January 27, 1983
Will Quince (Colchester) – December 27, 1982
Chloe Smith (Norwich North) – May 17, 1982
Robert Jenrick (Newcastle-under-Lyme) – January 9, 1982
Stuart Penketh (Ellesmere Port and Neston) – December 4, 1981
Keely Huxtable (Birmingham Northfield) – November 7, 1981
Chris Skidmore (Kingswood) – May 17, 1981

Jonathan Isaby

Sir Peter Brown resigns as agent in Huntingdon days before Jonathan Djanogly seeks to "clear the air" on expenses

8.30pm Update: Sir Peter has just posted the following in the comments below:

"I am interested in your report regarding my retirement as agent for the Huntingdon Conservative Association. You should not read anything into my resignation letter which you have published. My commitment is to the local Party and I will be working towards our success at the forthcoming General Election. However, as I said in my letter to the Chairman, I have health issues which I need to address. Most importantly of all I want to continue my work as a County Councillor representing my constituents in Huntingdon, Alconbury and the Stukeleys. Jonathan is a hard working MP with tremendous support in the constituency. I will work to see the re-election of our local Conservative MP at the forthcoming General Election."

---

Sir Peter Brown (pictured), the long-standing party agent in Huntingdon who worked for many years for John Major when he was the local MP, has resigned.

He had been due to retire next year, but has given his association chairman his three months' notice in advance of local MP Jonathan Djanogly addressing a meeting on Thursday to discuss his expenses claims.

Mr Djanogly returned £25,000 he had received in expenses after the Telegraph reported his claims of £4,936 for security gates at his home, and £13,962 and £12,951 for cleaning and gardening respectively over four years. This is the largest amount returned by a Conservative MP (a figure only equalled by Eleanor Laing).

The meeting on Thursday is not a public meeting, as David Cameron has suggested to MPs, but instead is open only to party members and has been described by Mr Djanogly's local paper as a "clear the air" session.

Well-placed sources tell me that that Sir Peter - who is also a member of Cambridgeshire County Council - has been less than happy at the course of events and has not been willing publicly to defend Mr Djanogly's conduct.

In his resignation letter - reproduced below - he pointedly makes no reference to the sitting MP for whom he has acted as agent since 2001:

Those with farming experience in the likely next intake of Conservative MPs

Here is the latest in a series of lists categorising some of those standing as candidates in seats which are either notionally Conservative or appear on paper in the top 200 target seats for the Conservatives at the next election.

Yesterday we listed those with military experience (including reservists and TA members):

Today we are publishing a list of those with a background in or experience of farming in one way of another :

Peter Aldous (Waveney)
Neil Carmichael (Stroud)
Suzy Davies (Brecon and Radnorshire)
Richard Drax (Dorset South)
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones (Chippenham)
George Eustice (Camborne and Redruth)
George Freeman (Norfolk Mid)
Alex Johnstone (Aberdeenshire West and Kincardine)
Bruce Laughton (Gedling)
Peter Lyburn (Perth and North Perthshire)
Philip Milton (Devon North)
Neil Parish (Tiverton and Honiton, pictured)
Douglas Ross (Moray)
Antoinette Sandbach (Delyn)
Mark Spencer (Sherwood)
Julian Sturdy (York Outer)

Jonathan Isaby

Diary of a PPC - Anne-Marie Trevelyan (Berwick-upon-Tweed)

Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.

This week’s diary is written by Anne-Marie Trevelyan, candidate for Berwick-upon-Tweed. It is the most northerly English constituency and since a 1973 by-election has been held for the Liberals (and now Liberal Democrats) by Alan Beith, one of the unsuccessful candidates in the recent Speaker election. He will be defending a notional majority of 8,585, meaning that Anne-Marie requires a swing of 11.8% to gain the seat.

My constituency has 1,000 square miles of unspoilt landscape, from the sea to the Cheviot Hills, with only 58,000 voters. I travel great distances to visit constituents, businesses, schools and voluntary organisations. The fuel bill and poor green footprint is compensated for every day by the warmth, kindness and honesty of my constituents with whom I have the privilege of working for better solutions to many entrenched problems. Here's my diary of the week...

Sunday 28th June

With two kids, we try to keep Sundays  as family days – this works some of the time!  My daughter and I went to church, a chance to contemplate for a few moments.  The coffee after church is now a mini-surgery for me, as friends and neighbours take the opportunity to tell me about local issues and  personal problems. Being a PPC is a bit like being a doctor in our rural community – I am never off duty to constituents, whose needs and frustrations continue regardless of the weather or days of the week. And I wouldn’t have it any other way. 

So in typical “day off “ fashion, after church we made pasta salad for 25 for our church annual summer lunch, which we dropped off before heading south to a christening.  These young children are the future, these are the ones who make me determined to ensure that we look after our country, our countryside, our villages.

After children to bed, a couple hours on press releases to cover activities of the past few days – wind turbine battles, transport issues, foul smelling manures on local farms...

Those with military experience in the likely next intake of Conservative MPs

Here is the latest in a series of lists categorising some of those standing as candidates in seats which are either notionally Conservative or appear on paper in the top 200 target seats for the Conservatives at the next election.

Yesterday we listed those who are, or have previously been, part- or full-time teachers or lecturers.

Today we are publishing a list of those with military experience (including reservists and TA members):

Philip Allott (Halifax)
Steve Barclay (Cambridgeshire North East)
Ron Bell (Blackpool South)
Andrew Bridgen (Leicestershire North West)
Dan Byles (Warwickshire North)
Richard Drax (Dorset South)
Flick Drummond (Portsmouth South)
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones (Chippenham)
Keith Girling (Bassetlaw)
Simon Hart (Carmarthen West and Pembrokeshire South)
Kris Hopkins (Keighley)
Bruce Laughton (Gedling)
Jack Lopresti (Filton and Bradley Stoke, pictured)
Jason McCartney (Colne Valley)
Stuart Penketh (Ellesmere Port and Neston)
Simon Reevell (Dewsbury)
Mark Versallion (Stretford and Urmston)

Jonathan Isaby

The teachers and lecturers in the likely new intake of Conservative MPs

For last week's Inside Cameron's Conservatives conference, I conducted some in-depth research into the likely new intake of Conservative MPs, covering those already selected for notionally Conservative seats or those which appear on paper in the top 200 target seats for the Conservatives.

We've already published some observations about the kinds of people they are and the views they hold; here is a list of those standing in thos most winnable seats who are, or have previously been, part- or full-time teachers or lecturers:

Deirdre Alden (Birmingham Edgbaston)
Helen Baker (Bridgend)
John Bell (Clwyd South)
Neil Carmichael (Stroud)
Mark Coote (Cheltenham)
Byron Davies (Gower)
Kris Hopkins (Keighley)
Mark Hudson (Edinburgh South)
Ben Jeffreys (Cheadle)
Bruce Laughton (Gedling)
Jason McCartney (Colne Valley)
Antony Little (Norwich South)
Gerald Michaluk (Ochil and South Perthshire)
Jesse Norman (Hereford and North Herefordshire)
Eric Ollerenshaw (Lancaster and Fleetwood)
Andrew Percy (Brigg and Goole)
Adeela Shafi (Bristol East)

Jonathan Isaby

David Cameron direct mails every Norwich North voter

A letter from David Cameron has been direct mailed to every voter in Norwich North.  Each letter has been personally addressed to every voter.

The letter has two big themes: The expenses crisis and the economic crisis.

Of MPs with controversial expense claims, he tells the letters' readers that "I don’t care if they were within the rules – they were wrong."  He continues: "I’ve been very clear: anyone in my party who refuses to accept the decision of this panel will not be allowed to continue as a Conservative MP."

He then puts honesty and the debt crisis at the heart of his letter:

"We should have the confidence to tell the public the truth – that Britain faces a debt crisis.  Our national credit rating is under threat.  Every international institution agrees that we now need to clear up the mess. Even members of the Cabinet agree, and the Chancellor outlined future cuts in the Budget. But Gordon Brown refuses to face up to what has gone wrong, and what everyone else agrees must be done. The truth is that real spending plans will have to be cut whoever is elected. We have already set out some specific cuts a Conservative Government would make – like ID cards, burgeoning quangos, and the cost of politics. And we have set out whole areas we will radically reform to get better value for money – like education and welfare. We know that if you talk honestly to people about the spending decisions that
need to be taken, they will respect you."

Here is a PDF if you wish to read the whole letter and accompanying survey.

Attached to the letter is a pledge from Chloe Smith, our candidate, promising how she'll handle her own expenses:

Another classic misleading Liberal Democrat bar chart

LibDemVoice had the cheek to complain a fortnight ago that a Tory bar graph wasn't 100% fair (although it was perfectly ok). I hope they will disown the bar chart that appears on their new leaflet in Norwich North! Just look at it. That 4% advantage of the LibDems over Labour - as represented by the LD newspaper's bar chart - looks twice as large as the 10% advantage that the Tories have over the Yellow Peril.

The rest of the newspaper (Download PDF of Lib Dem Newspaper)  is also interesting for its negativity toward Labour and particularly the Greens. It looks like the Yellows are playing for second.

Tim Montgomerie

8.30pm: I'm grateful to Tony Sharp for submitting this:

Pro-nuclear, gay friendly, barely Unionist, very Eurosceptic... meet the next generation of Tory MPs

ConservativeHome has just completed the most authoritative survey so far of the political views of the next generation of Tory MPs. 144 of our candidates in the 220 most winnable seats completed a confidential survey and their answers are recorded in this PDF.  Key findings are illustrated below:

The Guardian covers this report this morning but had the results when only 117 replies had been received.  They regard Eurosceptic as "isolationist" when some of us think it is Europe that is isolationist given its corrupt record on international aid, protectionist trade policies and reluctance to contribute to international security efforts.

Earlier this week ConHome profiled the demographic and other key characteristics of the 'Class of 2010'.

Tim Montgomerie

Tory candidate demands by-election in Leyton and Wanstead as Labour MP quits

Just after the writ was moved yesterday for the by-election in Norwich North, another Labour MP hit by expenses revelations announced his intention to quit at the general election.

Harry Cohen, MP for Leyton and Wanstead, came under fire for redesignating his main home as a property 70 miles from his east London constituency and in announcing his decision to stand down cited the "intolerable stress" he had suffered over the issue, which had also been "detrimental to [his wife] Ellen's heart condition".

Leyton and Wanstead's Conservative candidate, Edwin Northover (pictured), has been making an issue of Mr Cohen's expenses in recent weeks and wasted no time yesterday in saying that he should follow Ian Gibson's example and stand down now to prompt an immediate by-election.

He said:

"Through conversations with local people here it has become clear to me that Harry had lost the respect of those that put him in Westminster. There was genuine anger about his expenses claims and quite frankly bemusement at his claim to be a "better MP than Churchill" . Though he has been a long-standing servant of Leyton and Wanstead, the expenses scandal has raised serious questions about Harry's judgment. It is right that he should step down and he must also consider paying back any money that was claimed inappropriately".

"However, we would like to give Harry Cohen a chance to retire to his Essex home early. We are therefore calling on him to stand down now and call a by-election. We want to offer the people of Leyton and Wanstead a clear alternative to this moribund government".

Jonathan Isaby

Lots of councillors... lots of lawyers... lots of people who have fought for their seats more than once... meet the next parliamentary Conservative party

Yesterday ConservativeHome held its 'Inside David Cameron's Conservatives' conference.  We've already unveiled our finding that Cameron and Osborne are considering a joint Downing Street HQ.  Over the next fortnight we'll be highlighting other aspects of our research.  To get the momentum going we've pasted below some of Jonathan Isaby's key findings on the nature of the next generation of Conservative MPs - the 'Class of 2010':

There will be a big influx of women Conservative MPs...
There are currently 17 female Conservative MPs, of whom 4 are retiring at the next election. But already set to take their place are 10 women amongst the candidates in notionally Conservative-held seats and 31 in the top 116 target seats which, on paper, would deliver a Conservative Commons majority. Of the candidates in the remaining seats in the top 200 Tory targets, a further 18 are women. This would suggest if David Cameron gets a parliamentary majority, in excess of 50 Conservative MPs will be women.

> Yesterday's Seats and candidates post

...and an increase in the number who are gay...
It provoked much comment when David Gold became the first openly gay Conservative candidate in 2001; since then only three Conservative MPs have come out as gay, but Nick Boles (pictured) is set to enter Parliament as MP for the ultra-safe Grantham and Stamford and at least half a dozen other openly gay candidates are poised to win seats this time.    

...or from an ethnic minority
Two candidates from an ethnic minority have been selected for safe Tory seats  - Priti Patel and Helen Grant - with another ten hoping to gain seats currently held by Labour or the Liberal Democrats.

Almost half of the original A-List have got a seat
The controversial priority list of candidates effectively tried to create a fast-track to the better seats for (initially 100) candidates selected by the powers-that-be in the party, of which half were women. Of those original 100 A-Listers, 17 are among the candidates selected for a notionally Conservative seat, with a further 25 standing in target seats.

> The A-listers selected for target seats and for Conservative held seats

Norwich North by-election will take place on 23rd July

The writ has now officially been moved in Parliament for a by-election in Norwich North on 23rd July to replace Ian Gibson, who resigned in the wake of the Labour Party banning him from standing at the general election.

Conservative candidate Chloe Smith has been in place since January 2008 and you can read more about her campaign on her website. It's certainly good weather for campaigning at the moment, as the picture here of Chloe with MPs Richard Bacon, Alistair Burt and Owen Paterson demonstrates.

But no by-election has been called for the other vacant seat, Glasgow North East, vacated by Michael Martin. It was suggested in this morning's Daily Record that the poll there would not happen until November! I blogged at the weekend about the ludicrousness of the situation whereby people are left without an MP for months on end.

Jonathan Isaby

ConservativeHome research highlights the likely surge in female Tory MPs at the next election

I will be making a presentation at the ConservativeHome Inside Cameron's Conservatives conference this afternoon about the likely new intake of Tory MPs at the next election.

If David Cameron is to attain a working majority in the Commons, there will need to be 326 or more Conservative MPs sitting on the green benches; so given that there are presently only 170 (and falling) sitting Tory MPs seeking re-election, in excess of 155 new faces will need to be elected just to ensure the smallest of parliamentary majorities.

So in all likelihood, more then half of the Conservative MPs sent to Westminster at the next election will be new MPs, making it the most extensive influx of new blood onto the Tory benches in history. And since the party starts from such a low ebb, once those MPs have gained seats from other parties, many can expect to remain there for a generation or more.

And one of the most striking features about the new intake is the number of women who are poised to be among its number. My research - highlighted in this morning's Daily Telegraph - shows:

• 13 of the 17 sitting female Tory MPs are seeking re-election;
• 10 women are standing in notionally Conservative-held seats;
• 31 are contesting seats which are, on paper, in the top 116 targets the party needs to win in order to get that Commons majority; and
• 18 further women are standing in seats further down the list of the top 200 targets.

So at this stage, it would seem that in excess of 50 women can be expected to be sitting as Conservative MPs if David Cameron is to form a government - and that figure could rise to nearer 60 or even more, the bigger the swing the party manages across the country. And it should also be borne in mind that is before the next round of selections in the now 13 seats where a sitting MP has announced their retirement in recent weeks.

I have calculated that since women were first entitled to stand for Parliament nearly 100 years ago, only 65 have sat as Conservative MPs; so it is certainly noteworthy that approaching the same number will be elected to sit on the Tory benches in one go at the next election.

And that will have been achieved, of course, without having resorted to discriminatory all-women shortlists.

Watch this space for further conclusions from my research about the next generation of Conservative MPs.

Jonathan Isaby

4,000 people have applied to be Tory candidates since the list was re-opened

David Cameron revealed at his monthly press conference that 4,000 people had now sent in applications to be Conservative candidates after his call for new people to come forward.

He said that extra resources were being put into the candidates' department and that he was impressed with many of the CVs he had seen himself, coming from people from "a variety of backgrounds and stages of life" - such as midwives, nurses, teachers and so on.

He said that extra parliamentary assessment boards are being planned to process the applicants and he defended opening up the list on the basis that since a number of people had decide to stand down, there were more seats available.

Jonathan Isaby

Diary of a PPC: Iain Stewart (Milton Keynes South)

Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.

This week’s diary is written by Iain Stewart, candidate for Milton Keynes South. Having stood in 2001 and 2005 in Milton Keynes South West - which makes up most of the new seat - he was fast-tracked as PPC soon after the last election. Following the boundary changes, Iain is facing a notional Labour majority of 1,497 against the incumbent MP, Dr Phyllis Starkey.

Monday 22nd June

The alarm bleeps into life at the usual 5.45am. It’s never my best time of day but this morning I’m feeling even more sluggish than normal as I got back home late on Sunday after a flying visit to Scotland for a family event.
 
Most days I get the 7am train from Bletchley into Euston for my day job. I’m a headhunter for Odgers Berndtson, working in Virginia Bottomley’s team. In the current climate, our services are much in demand! Working with Virginia is great fun but also incredibly demanding. She is also an unofficial mentor to me, giving me wise advice on my budding Parliamentary career; and she is incredibly understanding when PPC duties intrude into normal work time.

Today I’m also keeping a close eye on the race to become the new Speaker. I had a vested interest in John Bercow winning; my seat is part of a grouping arrangement with his and, with him contesting the next election as a Speaker candidate rather than as a Conservative, that could free up valuable resources for Milton Keynes!! Seriously, I do wish him all the best in helping to restore the battered image of Parliament.

My other distraction today is trying to get to grips with my new iPhone. I wouldn’t say I’m a technophobe but it took me the best part of lunchtime to work out where to put the SIM card!

I dash out the office at 5.30pm to catch the 5.54pm train back home for a Shenley Brook End & Tattenhoe Parish Council meeting. I’ve been a Parish Councillor for the last four years (not claiming any of the expenses to which I’m entitled!) and it is a rewarding role and gives me a valuable insight into local issues. Mention Parish Councils and most people conjure up an image from the Vicar of Dibley but our Parish serves over 20,000 residents and has a budget of approximately £400,000. Tonight’s meeting covers a wide range of topics from awarding grant to a local youth football team to our future business plan. The meeting finishes at 9.45pm and I get home just in time to catch up with the Speaker election on the news.

Hazel Grove now has the youngest Conservative Association chairman in history

As of last night, Hazel Grove Conservatives now have, as far as I know, the youngest Conservative association chairman in history.

Oliver Johnstone is 18 years old and is currently studying Politics and Modern History at Manchester University. He beats the previous record, which was set by James Wharton, who was 19 when he became chairman of Stockton Conservatives in 2003 (and who is now candidate for Stockton South).

He said on his elevation to the chairmanship last night:

''Becoming an association chairman is going to be a big responsibility for me but I relish the opportunity to work with our activists and supporters who are committed to getting more Conservative Councillors elected and Annesley Abercorn elected as our next MP.''

Meanwhile, Hazel Grove prospective parliamentary candidate, Annesley Abercorn (pictured above with Oliver) added:

''Oliver Johnstone is one to watch. He is a very mature young man who has sound judgment and great organisational skills. This appointment marks a great moment for Hazel Grove Conservatives. I think that Oliver will inspire more young people to join the Conservatives locally and I look forward to working with him in the run up to the General Election."

Jonathan Isaby

Chloe Smith finally has a Labour opponent in Norwich North

The Labour Party this afternoon selected a candidate to stand in the forthcoming by-election caused by the resignation of Labour MP Ian Gibson in Norwich North, where the Conservative candidate will be Chloe Smith, who has been in place and campaigning in the seat since January 2008.

According to the website of the Eastern Daily Press, the red rosette will be donned by one Chris Ostrowski, who is described as an "activist from London" whose connections with the area extend to having studied at the University of East Anglia and been seventh on the list of seven for Labour in the recent Euroepan election in the East of England. He was selected at a meeting of around 50 Labour members.

Whilst claiming that he intends fighting "a positive campign", he said on his selection that he will speak out where he thinks that "the threat of Conservative cuts could damage Norwich or hurt the chances of its people".

A poll published on Friday suggested that Labour are poised to suffer a considerable drop in support and lose the seat to the Conservatives.

Jonathan Isaby

13th plum Tory seat becomes vacant with retirement announcement from Penrith's David Maclean

It has a projected majority of 9,307 over the Liberal Democrats and is one of the most beautiful seats in Britain: Penrith and the Border.

Last night David Maclean MP - former Home Office minister and former Shadow Chief Whip - told his local Conservative Association that ill health would mean he could no longer give England's largest constituency the "full pelt" service it deserves.   Mr Maclean has been suffering from multiple sclerosis for some time.

Earlier in the week Mr Maclean left his hospital bed to take part in the vote for Speaker.

> News & Star report.

David Bull steps down as candidate for Brighton Pavilion to head up policy review

Dr David Bull, the former doctor and TV presenter, has today stood down as PPC for Brighton Pavilion in order to head up a Conservative policy review on sexual health with Anne Milton, the shadow health minister.

He explained:

"I am delighted to have been asked to head up this vitally important matter for the future health of our nation. I have long been concerned about the spiralling rates of sexual diseases in the UK, particularly amongst young people.  It is essential that we find policy solutions to tackle this growing problem before it is too late. This is a very important task which will require detailed work and will have far reaching implications.It will command a considerable amount of my time and coupled with my already busy workload which  will mean that I will no longer be able to make the commitments that is required if we are to win back  Brighton Pavilion. I could not have asked for more help and support from my local association, and am determined to continue to help them secure a Conservative MP at the next election."

Carol Ramsden, chairman of the Brighton Pavilion Conservative Association, added:

"We are very sorry to see David step down, but we are proud he will be leading such an important policy area for the party, and understand the demands on his time. David is a huge asset to our Party, and we are pleased he has pledged to continue to work with us to elect a Conservative MP in Brighton Pavilion at the next election."

Shadow Health Secretary Andrew Lansley welcomed his appointment to the policy review, saying:

"I am delighted that Dr. Bull has agreed to lead the policy review on sexual health. The Conservative Party is determined to make public health policy central to dealing with health policy overall and sexual health is a significant part of that. It will be a challenge, but Dr. Bull's medical expertise makes him well qualified to fulfil this task. His involvement is in keeping with our pledge to found our health policies on a robust evidence-base".

A new candidate will therefore be sought for Brighton Pavilion, who will need a swing of 6.6% to overturn a notional Labour majority of 5,867 from second place. Labour MP David Lepper is retiring, but it is an unusual seat in that the Greens are in a strong third place, with the party's leader, MEP Caroline Lucas, intending to stand there at the general election.

Jonathan Isaby

First poll in Norwich North points to a Tory gain

The writ is yet to be moved for the Norwich North by-election (caused by the resignation of Labour MP Ian Gibson), but there is an expectation that the contest will held before the end of July.

However, today the first poll of the campaign has emerged, which points to the contest very much being a two-horse race between Conservative candidate Chloe Smith (pictured) and a yet-to-be selected Labour candidate, with the Lib Dems and Greens trailing in a fight for third place.

The ICM poll - commissioned by the University and College Union - puts the parties on the following percentages:

Con - 34% (+1 on the 2005 general election)
Lab - 30% (-15)
Lib Dem - 15% (-1)
Greens - 14% (+11)
Others - 7% (+4)

ICM Research conducted the poll in Norwich North between June 19th and 21st.

Jonathan Isaby

Group of Tory voters in Spelthorne seeking to oust David Wilshire

The latest edition of the Staines News reports that a fledgling group of Conservative voters in the Spelthorne constituency are seeking to force the local Conservative MP, David Wilshire, to stand down over his expense claims.

My reading of the article suggests that the individuals involved in the so-called "Conservative Anti-Corruption Group" are not existing party members or activists, so it would not appear to be an attempt to force a deselection vote among party members. Rather, it would seem to be a small movement of rank-and-file voters who have the potential to organise against Mr Wilshire in the run up to the general election, assuming he remains as the Conservative candidate.

He came under fire in the Daily Telegraph for his claiming, among other things, £66.66 on a monthly basis for carpets and curtains for his second home. Further concerns were raised by some locally who felt a second home was in any case unnecessary, since his Surrey constituency is within commuting distance of Westminster.

There was also a suggestion that he was inconsistent in his explanation of what he had claimed for, having previously been quoted as saying: “In 22 years of living in London I have always furnished the flat out of my own pocket.”

He has thus far refused to hold a public meeting to discuss his expenses - as David Cameron has recommended to all Tory MPs - saying he would prefer to meet concerned constituents on a one-to-one basis. 

But he has said that he is "embarrassed, sad and sorry for upsetting people" over his claims.

Jonathan Isaby

Will Sir Alan Haselhurst and Sir George Young be the next Tory MPs to stand down?

Just asking.

Diary of a PPC: Caroline Nokes balances her political life with work and family duties during a busy week in Romsey

Each week a different PPC provides us with an insight into life as a candidate and gives us a flavour of their own campaign and interests. If you are a candidate and are keen to be featured, please email Jonathan Isaby.

This week’s diary is written by Caroline Nokes, candidate for Romsey and Southampton North. She fought Romsey at the 2005 election - and was only 125 votes away from gaining it from the Liberal Democrats (who have held it since a 2000 by-election). Re-selected to fight the seat again (now renamed after minor boundary changes), Caroline requires a swing of 0.2% to gain the seat at the next election. She is Chief Executive of the National Pony Society and is married to Marc with a daughter, Tabitha. You can read more about her campaign on her website.

Saturday 13th June

Today starts earlier than a Saturday usually would, with my year old nephew demanding attention at 5am! I was on babysitting duty last night, and spent most of the evening pushing his buggy across fairly lumpy ground during the Romsey Show Farm Walk.  The fresh air does not appear to have made Alex sleep well!

10am – To Hunts Farm Timsbury for the opening of the latest stretch of the Stockbridge to Romsey cycle way.  Marc comes with me, snazzily dressed in his “Help for Heroes” lycra.  He cycled to Paris a couple of weeks ago for the charity, and has become a real cycling convert. Unlike me, I think the last time I cycled anywhere it was with David Cameron.

Midday – Then on to Lee Manor for a Conservative Fundraiser to mark the Queen’s Official Birthday, but only a quick stop for me as Tab, Marc and I are also going to Ampfield Church Fete and East Tytherley Fete. Fortunately I love village fetes, and there are a massive amount of them at this time of year.  Bad for the waistline though, with all the cake.

4.30pm – Quick catch up in Port Solent with some of the other Hampshire candidates. Penny Mordaunt from Portsmouth North has arranged for us to get together to swap campaigning tips. Big thank you to Penny!

Simon Marcus adopted to take on Margaret Hodge (and BNP) in Barking

His selection was overlooked because of the European Elections weekend but Simon Marcus has been adopted for Barking.

He issued this statement:

"I am delighted to have been selected for Barking. Labour have represented Barking for sixty years and it is still one of the most deprived areas in London. Does anyone need more proof that Labour isn’t working? The people of Barking deserve better than a party that talks about about equality, justice and fairness while locking people into state dependency, poverty and social breakdown. Our party has so many of the answers to the problems facing our communities such as failing schools, anti-social behaviour and social mobility that has ground to a halt. Barking deserves to be on the wining side for once and I will do my best to put it there."

Marcus will have his work cut out to oust Margaret Hodge.  She has a projected majority of 11,358 but with the BNP making this seat a top target (they have about 16% of the vote compared to the Conservatives' 18% from the last General Election) anything could happen.

Tim Montgomerie

Thelma Matuk stands down in Walsall South - but will be looking for another seat in the autumn

ConservativeHome can reveal that Thelma Matuk - who has been candidate for Walsall South since September 2007 - stepped down yesterday. Like several other candidates who have resigned since the recession started to bite, she has said that she needs time to "get things back on track" in her trouble-shooting business in these difficult economic times. She told me:

"The recession has been problematical, and since I'm not married I've only got my sole income to support me... I've got to devote some time to my business - I'm going to focus on that for the next four to eight weeks".

It was then that she indicated that she fully intends finding another seat to fight at the next election later in the year.

"I'll start all over again applying for seats in the autumn. I'm still very keen on politics and am very ambitious".

When I put it to her that it might look like she was deserting a difficult seat in order to try and apply to one of the more attractive seats where an MP was retiring and bequeathing a Conservative majority, she denied that this was the case:

"I hope people won't jump to that conclusion... When I was selected nearly two years ago, I couldn't have known that the recession would hit in the way it has".

Three weeks ago, Tim pondered whether candidates adopted for hard-to-win seats should be released for the new plum vacancies, but concluded that they should not.

Jonathan Isaby

P.S. As of 8.45pm this evening, CCHQ had still not removed Thelma Matuk's profile from Conservatives.com, despite having put out the advert seeking a new candidate earlier today... It was removed within minutes of us publishing this post!

A mixed bag of seven seats seeking a candidate

CCHQ has today advertised for a candidate in seven seats. None of the recent retirement seats are included, but there are two where candidates have recently stood down in seats within the top 200 targets.

The deadline for applications is June 29th.

In order of where they appear on the target list, they are:

Dudley North - Conservative target 106; notional Labour majority of 4,106 over the Conservatives. This is where John Perry recently stood down. Sitting MP - Ian Austin.

Walsall South - Conservative target 194; notional Labour majority of 7,910 over the Conservatives. This is where Thelma Matuk stood down. Sitting MP - Bruce George.

Edmonton - Conservative target 251; notional Labour majority of 10,312 over the Conservatives. Sitting MP - Andy Love.

Hartlepool - Conservative target 331; Labour majority of 7,478 over Lib Dems (Con in 3rd place). Sitting MP - Iain Wright.

Sedgefield - Conservative target 364; notional Labour majority of 18,198 over the Conservatives. Sitting MP - Phil Wilson.

Cardiff Central - Conservative target 394; Lib Dem majority of 5,593 over Labour (Con in 3rd place). Sitting MP - Jenny Willott.

Easington - Conservative target 413; notional Labour majority of 18,874 over Lib Dems (Con in 3rd place). Sitting MP - John Cummings (retiring).

(All target numbers and majorities based on the figures compiked by Profs Rallings and Thrasher of the University of Plymouth)

Jonathan Isaby

Ian Taylor MP becomes twelfth Tory MP to announce decision to leave Commons in recent weeks

ConHome has just learnt that Ian Taylor, MP for Esher & Walton, is to stand down at the next General Election.

With David Curry, also leaving the Commons, Mr Taylor is one of the parliamentary party's last EU enthusiasts.  Ken Clarke MP and John Gummer MP will be even more isolated in the next Parliament.

Very popular in his constituency and a leading authority on science and technology, Mr Taylor has campaigned in favour of Heathrow expansion in recent years.

He leaves behind a projected majority of 7,727 over the Liberal Democrats.  There is no suggestion that his stepping down is related to expenses-gate.

Tim Montgomerie

7pm: PDF of Ian Taylor's resignation letter.