We’re not meant to say it these days but however you look at it, Zimbabwe’s ours. Not literally, but in the interests of a post-independence peaceful settlement. So we have an existing obligation to look after its interests.
What is to be done with Zimbabwe via the existing EU channels? Whatever is to be done, the arguments must no longer be whether we should or should not act, but what kind of international action by Europe should be taken. Certainly, the EU, in terms of the collective nation states of Europe, needs to act on Zimbabwe but they need to act now. We can’t wait for the slothful Foreign Secretaries of France or Germany to begin or indeed Javier Solana to wake up in Brussels and recognise the world realities. Indeed, recent gestures by the EU or the Member States show that most would not be willing to stick their neck out on Zimbabwe. The fact that either Europe works as one united voice or some follow later shouldn’t be a question; and shame on those who doubt that now is the time for action. The UK and more to the point, the Conservative Party must take some kind of leadership here.
I noticed yesterday, an interesting article appeared in the Washington Post by Paul Collier, a professor of economics at Oxford University (whose overall framework I disliked but whose shock at the fatigued Western powers I shared) as he made a worthwhile suggestion on the possibility of a European-induced coup:
A collective EU withdrawal of recognition from the Mugabe or Shwe regimes would be an obvious and modest extension of the values that underpin the European project. Making any such suspension of recognition temporary -- say, for three months -- would present potential coup plotters within an army with a brief window of legitimacy. They would know that it was now or never, which could spur them to act. And even if the loss of recognition did not induce a quick coup, E.U. recognition would be restored after the three months were up.
I am not sure that Collier is right to say that an EU maneuver would be an extension of the values of the European project (since the European project is everything but democratic) but acting as a powerful pluralistic association of nation states is a good thing. The UK, along with the other 26 Member States (and other EU hopefuls) will be in a position to pursue a 12-week suspension of recognition which would indeed present potential coup plotters within an army with a brief window of legitimacy. The UK could “back up” plotters quite inexpensively, as it saw fit, to overthrow the regime. It would not take long because despite all the talk of Mugabe’s power, he would fall in a day if the right pressure is applied.
