Australia - the Liberal Party leadership

I worked for Australia's Liberal Party in the run-up to last year's election, which saw the defeat of the government and the ascent of Kevin Rudd's Labor (not sp).  I therefore took great interest in the fact that Australia's foremost broadsheet, The Australian, has conducted a significant poll of the Liberal Party membership about the current leadership, coverage and discussion of which you can read here.  In sum, it shows a strong preference amongst party members for a return of Peter Costello, erstwhile longserving Treasurer, to the front line.  This is (for the time being) unlikely, one would think, as he would have taken up the mantle immediately after defeat without a challenger if he had been minded to do so.  Instead, Malcolm Turnbull might be thought more likely.  Then again, there is a current leader, Brendan Nelson - whom the constant speculation can hardly be helping.  Watch this space.

Comments

[Tim Montgomerie]

The Liberals probably need to be preparing for a long period of opposition. Wherever you look in the world electorates are likely to give new governments the benefit of the doubt at their first re-election bid. Oz certainly has a history of doing so. The Libs shouldn't worry about today's opinion polls. They should be looking to where they stand on the core issues of five to seven years' time.

[Alex Deane]

I understand your position, but I'm less negative than that. That's due, inter alia, to the following logic:

1) Kevin Rudd's victory was bankrolled by the unions, which spent more than either political party at the last election (imagine that in the UK context - besides Labour's spending the unions outspending the Conservative Party - stuff of nightmares).

2) The unions kept their heads down when Rudd tacked remorselessly rightwards because they were desperate to get rid of Howard's government. That reason for discipline has now gone.

3) If Rudd sticks to his agenda, he will fatally undermine his position with the unions, who have just demonstrated their ability fundamentally to determine the left's success at the ballot box. On the other hand, if he bows to the unions he'll greatly undermine his standing with the electorate as a centrist.

Whilst I therefore accept your premise that the opinions polls (which have Rudd sky high...) shouldn't cause (too much) hand-wringing, the timeframe I'd work to is shorter than seven years...