Encouraging news from Canada. Four by-elections were held on Monday, all in constituencies won by the opposition Liberal party in the last election. The amazing thing was that they were seen, nearly universally, in the media, as a referendum on the weak Liberal leader Stephane Dion and not on the Conservative minority government, which has been getting weeks of bad press. First there was "NAFTAgate" where a Canadian leak may have influenced the Democratic primary in Ohio, and then allegations of dodgy financial dealings by the party.
And what happened? Well, the Conservatives won one of the constituencies, Desnethé--Missinippi--Churchill River in northern Saskatchewan (an enormous seat the size of Germany). But the surprise is the result in urban Vancouve Quadra in British Columbia, one of the most affluent seats in Canada, and one of the safest Liberal seats in western Canada. The Liberals won, as expected, but by only 151 votes. In Canadian political terms this is a massive swing, and perhaps a harbinger of things to come. As a result I think the Liberals will be extremely reticent to force a general election. The Conservative government's record has spoken for itself and the voters seem to be prepared to reward it.
