Do the public want higher or lower public spending, lower or higher tax

In September last year a poll (PPT, pg. 25) for the TaxPayers' Alliance by YouGov found that 64% of people think that the Government spends and taxes too much against 18% who think the balance is about right and just 4% who would support more tax and spending.  Today, a Guardian ICM poll contradicts that with its finding that 51% would prefer continued public spending against only 36% who support tax cuts.  The balance in both polls is taken up by those who didn't know or refused to answer.

How can we reconcile these two polls on whether the public support lower spending and taxes or more tax and spend? Have things really changed so much in six months?

Well, take a look at the questions that were asked.  The full question (PDF, pg. 5) in the ICM survey, but not given in the Guardian article, asked people to choose between these party stances:

"Promised to keep government spending on public services at current levels or higher

Promised to make reducing taxes a priority, even though it might mean less spending on services like welfare or the NHS"

Do you see what they've done?  They've asked people to compare specific items of spending with a general pledge on taxation.  This biases the result and is exactly the crime we were accused of by a commenter on Tim's excellent post.

By contrast, the TaxPayers' Alliance poll keeps the question general:

"The money the government spends on public services and other things comes mainly from taxation.  Do you think...

The government spends too much and therefore taxes too much

The government has got the balance about right

The government spends too little and therefore taxes too little"

That is a neutral and fair way of approaching the broad question of whether the public want the government to keep increasing spending and taxing them to pay for it.  The public are hares.